2010-2020 Math: 200,000 Lawyer Jobs, 450,000 New Lawyers

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September 6, 2012

2010-2020 Math: 200,000 Lawyer Jobs, 450,000 New Lawyers

Deborah Jones Merritt (Ohio State), More Bad News From the BLS:

I posted earlier this week?about the Bureau of Labor Statistics projections for attorney job openings. To recap briefly, the BLS projects only 218,800 openings between 2010 and 2020--or 21,880 openings per year. Accredited law schools are currently producing about 45,000 JDs per year, more than twice the number of available jobs. Even if schools cut enrollment by 20%, a relatively dramatic move, we will finish the decade with more than 200,000 JDs who can't find jobs as lawyers.

But that's just the beginning of the bad news. Those 218,800 projected jobs are not all full-time, secure jobs with good salaries and benefits. The BLS counts all positions -- part-time, full-time, temporary, or permanent -- as "jobs." (I confirmed that fact directly with a helpful BLS staff member.) Notably for the legal profession, the projected openings include individuals who will open solo practices.?...

But even if we ...?assume that the BLS has correctly targeted the?number of lawyer jobs, law schools are producing far too many lawyers. It is sheer arrogance to suggest that we can force the economy to create more lawyer jobs simply because our graduates are bright and eager. And it is dangerously deceptive to keep encouraging large numbers of students to go to law school because "the economy will turn around" or "there will be more jobs when you graduate." ?The BLS has already assumed that the economy will turn around: ?A fully turned, full-employment economy will produce 218,800 openings for lawyers this decade--leaving more than 200,000 new lawyers holding JD-sized debts and BA-sized jobs.

September 6, 2012 in Legal Education | Permalink

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Comments

And 90% of those jobs are in government or compliance.

And because the stock market is so crappy, well let me tell you, there are a lot of "experienced" faces down at my local courthouse. They were old when I was clerking 12 years ago. And now, retire? No way. The practice of law is so far less lucrative these guys are scraping by. Even big PI settlements are spent before they get them. I know they wonder...what the hell happened?

So new grads are going up against a mass of red-nosed but experienced, effective, and hungry-to-work attorneys who should be chasing golf balls in Florida, instead of hustling family court for the few crumbs left over.

Posted by: Anthony E. Parent | Sep 6, 2012 3:28:41 PM

Great news, so maybe the price of lawyers will go down.

Posted by: Daniel Hossley | Sep 6, 2012 4:50:33 PM

Sounds like legal services should be getting much more affordable soon.

Posted by: Len Burman | Sep 6, 2012 4:57:00 PM

"It is sheer arrogance to suggest that we can force the economy to create more lawyer jobs simply because our graduates are bright and eager."

Agreed. It's also ridiculous to suggest that we can force the economy to create more lawyer jobs simply by making graduates more practice-ready, as many have suggested.

Posted by: Justin | Sep 6, 2012 5:14:31 PM

Golly gee! I guess some people with law degrees must be working in business or finance or government.

I hear one of them is the President and another is running for President.

Clearly this is an emergency! People with law degrees have attractive opportunities other than practicing law!

Posted by: Anon | Sep 6, 2012 5:15:07 PM

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